The role of regional actors and the polarization of China-US competition.
Edited by Francesca Pistone
Donald Trump, on the 20th of January, will officially take office in the White House. Overall, we expect his second mandate to be characterized, again, by non-interventionism and economic protectionism principles[1].
Although Trump is very unpredictable, it can be deduced how his second mandate will look like from his policies between 2016 and 2020.
On January 2018, Trump imposed new tariffs on solar panels, washing machines[2], steel and aluminum[3] imported not only from China but also from his allies, (the European Union, Mexico and Canada).
According to the president these tariffs would protect the American economy and fix the trade deficit, as the US is now much more importing (from China and the EU) than exporting. In fact, in 2008 to only Chinese investors was due the 50% of external debt of the United States. Although, many do not agree that this policy will translate in an increase in the overall wellbeing of Americans[4] as Trump publicly declared many times[5].
The new isolationist “America first” policy also means less focus on human rights protection globally, discourage of international organizations as NATO[6] and a more aggressive behaviour towards Mexico, Iran and China mining at the trust of many states in the Trump’s United States[7].
On the other hand, the role of China in this region is growing steadily as in the rest of the world due to its great trade activities. Chinese goods in fact are now bought everywhere and sometimes become a mean of dependency from Beijing. In the following years the Chinese influence in the region is expected to increase more both from the economic and the political point of view.
In this competition between the two powers the role of some developed states will increase, including the Middle East. These powers try to balance the relationship with both power[8] avoiding extreme polarizations.
The Middle East is also at the center of foreign policies of both China and US, as well as of the economic interests of all the world. Additional conflicts and disorders in that region due to this competition between the two powers can mean a serious danger for international trade.
The interests of Trump in the Gulf
Apart from the strategic relevance of Middle East states, the posture of the US in the region is the outcome of different needs of Trump and his stuff.
First, the new isolationist approach of Washington calls for investing more on domestic reconstruction instead than on international disputes, or in general, according to Gedaliah Afterman, head of the Asia-Israel Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations, the US would like not to focus too much on the Gulf.
Additionally, the poor interest of Trump in protecting human rights contributes to soften the interests of US in being strongly present in the region.
However, according to Dawn Murphy, associate Professor of National Security Strategy at the US National War College, who will be appointed as secretary of State or high rank administration official will have an impact on the new Trump’s mandate.
The republican party is in fact becoming more and more concerned about the possible influence of the CCP globally and its contribution to the spread of authoritarian regimes, contrary to the president’s approach.
Additionally, even though the US aspires to treat the Middle East as a side show, due to its hegemonic geopolitical role Trump is always put there to deal with security issues, as the one related to the Israel-Palestine war and Iran.
The new stronger antagonism of Trump against Iran and China will also push the US to intervene so to contrast Teheran and Beijing interests in the Gulf.
The new president will also be busy regulating his relationship with Israel. During his first mandate Trump has been over generous towards Israel, by recognizing Jerusalem as its capital in 2017 and moving the USA embassy from Tel Aviv to the last[9], and in general siding Netaniau’s choices. According to Gedaliah Afterman, head of the Asia-Israel Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations, Israel will fill more empowered by the support of the United States to assert its vision in the Middle East. At the same time, Trump publicly declared his intention to stop wars[10] and this might also push Netanyahu to stop the conflict in Gaza. Also, being Israel a big importer of Chinese EVs, Trump might test Israel’s loyalty by asking to stop supplying certain technologies form Beijing[11].
The point of view of the Gulf
The Gulf relationship with the United States deteriorated significantly since 2016.
The aggressive measures in Iran, first with the withdrew of the US from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan for nuclear non-proliferation[12], the following reintroduction of sanctions and the so called “maximum pressure” policy and the assassination of Qasem Soleimani[13], together with ambiguous statements regarding Qatar’ crisis[14] and the already mentioned undiplomatic approach toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, makes Trump an untrustworthy partner for the Middle East.
The Gulfs sees instead in China a more stable partner through which protect theme selves from the incoming of new tariffs and sanctions from western powers.
That is also why BRICS and BRICS + are becoming more popular. In the following years, according to Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program, these unions can become an useful tool for states of the Global South to express themselves in the world arena as well as being more resilient towards the new protectionist trends of the West.
Chinese posture in the region
Again, to understand how China is approaching this region is important to take in consideration different points.
First, looking at the international approach of Xi Jinping[15], today’s Chinese approach internationally is more active that it used to be and it aims at playing a more central role globally. It is also relevant the way China deals with the Global South, showing its self as a model for developing countries as well a supporter and representative of their interests. The increasing economic capabilities of China and the intensity of trade with the Middle East makes the Dragon a very important actor, capable of influencing those states also from the political point of view.
At the same time, according to Chuchu Zhang, an associate professor of international relations in the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University, China does not have nor the interest nor the capabilities to have a strong influence in the region and somehow to substitute the US as security supplier. China does not even have many concerns of what is happening in the Middle East, instead Beijing much more worried on the US posture to issues like Taiwan or South-China Sea territorial disputes.
Furthermost, Chuchu Zhang continues that Chinese willing to participate more in the international arena and to access to Middle East market does not mean a desire to dominate or to exclude other actors from the region. Even in the many multilateral agreements signed from China, that worry many western countries, there is no intention in dominate over other countries. In fact, what China really wants is to continue its trade activities as smoot as possible[16].
That is also why China real interest in the region is to find a pacific resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and in general a more peaceful mood in the region, so not to compromise trade. Many experts quoted before do not even exclude the possibility of a dialogue between the Washington and Beijing in order to solve the current conflicts.
The narrative of competition between great powers and technology
At the end, the Gulf States want to be more independent and follow their own national interests and do not think much about siding the US or the realization of a Pax Sinica. According to Ahmed Aboudouh the region is both aware of the dangers coming from aggressive policies from both powers so they will try to diversify as much as possible their trade partners and to build their own industrial capabilities so to not to be dependent and sensible to changing dynamics between Washington and Beijing.
At the same time, being China and US great economic and security actors in the region, the competition between the two might force the states to take sides and this might contribute to polarize and worsen conflicts in the region.
According to Mohammed Alsudairi, lecturer in Politics and International Relations of the Arabic Speaking World at the Australian National University, what can really aggravate the conflict is the technological competition, particularly on AI, microchips and other strategic semiconductors and their transfer[17]. The US in fact has been really strict and punitive in confront to the Middle East to the purchasing and trading of American technology with China and this might really translate in active and aggressive actions by the two in the region.
Note
[1] Rebecca Picciotto, Trump’s tariff threats send U.S. companies scrambling for lobbyists and loopholes, NBC News, 12 November 2024 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/trump-tariff-threats-companies-seek-lobbyists-loopholes-rcna179868
[2] Richard Gonzales, Trump Slaps Tariffs On Imported Solar Panels And Washing Machines, NPR, 22 January 2018
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/01/22/579848409/trump-slaps-tariffs-on-imported-solar-panels-and-washing-machines
[3] Scott Horsley, Trump Formally Orders Tariffs On Steel, Aluminum Imports, NPR 8 March 2018, https://www.npr.org/2018/03/08/591744195/trump-expected-to-formally-order-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-imports
[4] Kent A. Clark Centre for Global Markets, Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, 12 March 2018 https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs/
[5] Richard Partington, Why is Donald Trump threatening more tariffs – and what next?, The Guardian, 18 June 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/19/donald-trump-tariffs-us-china
[6] NATO Survives Trump, but the Turmoil Is Leaving Scars,
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/12/world/europe/trump-nato-russia.html
[7] Mostafa Salem, Here’s what’s at stake in the Middle East under Trump’s second term, CNN, 6 November 2024
[8] P. Guerrieri; P. C. Padoan, Europa sovrana, le tre sfide di un mondo nuovo, LaTerza, 2004
[9] Trump Recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital and Orders U.S. Embassy to Move, New York Times,
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/world/middleeast/trump-jerusalem-israel-capital.html
[10] Tom Bateman, What Trump’s win means for Ukraine, Middle East and China, BBC, 6 November 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dl0e4l7lzo
[11] Nathan Greppi, La stella e il dragone: Israele e la Cina, un rapporto molto complicato ,Bet Magazine Mosaico, 7 July 2024
[12] Annalisa Perteghella, USA fuori dall’accordo sul nucleare iraniano: cosa cambia per l’Italia?, ISPI, 23 May 2018
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/usa-fuori-dallaccordo-sul-nucleare-iraniano-cosa-cambia-litalia-20597
[13]BBC, Qasem Soleimani: US kills top Iranian general in Baghdad air strike, 3 January 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463
[14] BBC, Qatar crisis: Saudi Arabia and allies restore diplomatic ties with emirate, 5 January 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55538792
[15] IAI, Orizzonte Cina, Vol. 8 n°5 settembre-ottobre 2017
[16] Dawn C. Murphy, THE SILK ROAD TO POWER, The Istittute for Peace and Democracy, 14 March 2024
[17]Karen Freifeld, US sets new rule that could spur AI chip shipments to the Middle East, Reuters, 30 September 224,
https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-sets-new-rule-that-could-spur-ai-chips-middle-east-2024-09-30/
Foto copertina:China and the Middle East after US elections