Interview with Sasa Dragojlo, investigative journalist at Balkan Insight
Belgrade, Serbia. Despite being a neighboring region for the European Union and especially for Italy, the Balkan region still appears to be poorly explored beyond stereotyped narratives and historical clichés. From the inside, a wind of change seems blowing. Alongside ethnic divisions and territorial disputes, the Balkan region is trying to find its strategic positioning in the middle of an ongoing process of revision of international spheres of influences. Amid the return of political realism in international relations, Balkan countries (and especially Serbia) are opting for a multivectorial approach. We discussed these issues with Sasa Dragojlo, correspondent for Balkan Insight and journalist at Balkan Investigative Reporting Network.
What is happening in Serbia after the protests that hit the country since November 2024, provoking the resignation of the Prime Minister? Is there the shadow of a political crisis that could lead to a change in the government or the risk of a “colored revolution” modeled on Ukraine?
When I hear this type of questions, I realize that there are many things that I need to clarify, as from the outside the situation does not look how it is. The “colored revolution” narrative is the famous claim the government is making, but it is totally absurd and we will come back to it in a moment.
Actually, we already are in the middle of a political crisis since Serbian Progressive Party and Vučić came to power. For months, we had student rebellions plus school teachers, lawyers, farmers and all people from different groups taking the streets. We have protests almost every day and every week in different cities. This is definitely the biggest crisis we have ever faced.
Our Prime Minister just formally resigned, but as we can see it is not official, as it is still running the government. This is one of their tricks: the Prime Minister is a completely irrelevant figure, it is just a Vučić’s puppet, so all these moves show that they are afraid. It is the first time in years that something that scares them is happening. There is only one precedent: a Lithium mining project, and now the issue is even bigger as the protests are widespread and you have students which are in large majority against the government, demanding a transition and some requests that need to be fulfilled after the incident in Novi Sad that killed 15 people. Basically, we have a riot in the State system of education. All people from small places are not ignoring this anymore, even though protests are not made visible in mainstream media. They are voters, so this is a problem for Vučić. The resignation of the Prime Minister is just showing that they are afraid. For this reason, they are using different tactics to tackle the issue. A further strategy is the narrative of the colur revolution: it is just stupid, but there is nice soil for this in the country as the West here is not popular. The fact is that all the Western countries are supporters of Vučić and not of the protesters at this point. The US, the EU, Germany and France especially are supporting the government, so it is just a scheme through which the President is trying to flip things around. Two days ago the Serbian police entered the premises of several NGOs without an arrest warrant and looking in their finances, just because President Trump and Elon Musk addressed these NGOs as “criminal organizations”. The fact is that 90% of the money coming from USAID went to the government: all these people were photographed with the USAID logo. They do not care about anything, it is propaganda. This is why it is very uncertain to guess what will happen in the future. What is sure is that this situation cannot go on for years, but the Serbian opposition is not so strong. They cannot turn this space that is created by students, and this is a paradox in which we live.
You mentioned a Lithium Mining Project. Since China is very active in this kind of businesses around the world and in the country, is what you mentioned also a Beijing-sponsored project?
Actually, it is not. It involves the Rio Tinto Company, and it is heavily backed by the West (especially Germany, UK and US). Indeed, the EU is particularly interested in the issue because of the “Critical Raw Material Act” and the fight against China for raw materials, therefore they are also supporting the project even though the people are against it. What is more, Rio Tinto is one of the companies with the worst reputation.
You have portrayed the West as “not so popular in Serbia”. What is the perception Serbians have of the so-called “West”, in the perspective of current global crisis in the Middle East and in Ukraine?
The topic is very broad and certainly has some nuances because it is a collective issue. I can however confirm that the West is not very popular in Serbia, first because of the NATO bombing in 1999 and second because of the post-war narrative of Serbia being the sole responsible for what happened. We started entering the EU process which is taking very much time, but we have the perception of it being a sort of EU way to “civilize” us. This narrative, with this transition from socialism to capitalism which had as a consequence many people losing their jobs in the passage to privatization of state-owned companies, influenced the majority of people, which are not really “fans” of Europe. This is especially true for Serbia, but for other countries we can say that the West also means the woke culture, trans-people rights, the destruction of traditional values. When it comes to that, it is more subtle because with the election of President Trump people believe that there will be some containment.
This government in Serbia is playing in different areas, but we should anyway say that it is pro-western: economy, legislation, and so on. The thing of the Russian influence is so over-exaggerated in Western media!
This easily leads me to another issue: from the European side, we have the impression that Serbia is placed under the sphere of influence of Russia because you did not adhere to the sanctions against the Kremlin due to the invasion of Ukraine.
Yes, but Serbia is exporting large quantities of arms to Ukraine during the whole war! Serbian rockets are used in the Ukrainian territory, and this is again a double game: our President did not adhere to sanctions because these are just a symbolic thing. Billions of euros worth arms is much better for Ukraine and the US.
Then, we must also say that as the West is not popular here among people, the sympathy to Russia comes because whatever exists, whatever alternative is better than the West. But we are aware that Russia cannot be the alternative, as it has no money and no projects. China here is investing money, is building roads and new infrastructure.
Some years ago, I had the chance to have a conversation with the Ambassador of Serbia in a European country, and talking about your path to joining the EU I was told that the Union is constantly adding other criteria and requisites even though you are making progresses. Why is this process taking so long? And in light of this, what is your perception on the fact that because of the war Ukraine will probably have more chance of a quicker adhesion to the EU – despite not meeting some relevant criteria?
I just think that the EU does not want this part of Europe in the EU. They always talk about standards: it is a political process, other countries in the Balkans that entered the EU as Bulgaria or Croatia are not “super advanced”, there are problems of corruption and not only of that. The situation has changed with respect to the period in which they were accepted, we have the issue of Kosovo which is the condition that is always there. Other countries do not have this problem.
I think that if the EU wants Serbia, then it would get Serbia. But it is much more beneficial for them to have this “grey zone”: you can make deals here, it is an area of connection between the East and the West, people transit here when they migrate, it is crucial to protect the borders and so on. It is more up to the EU than to Serbia: of course Belgrade has not done its best to meet the criteria, but this situation at the moment is the best we can expect from this kind of government. It is really corrupted and linked to drug traffickers.
Do you believe that something will change in the region after the election of Donald Trump?
Could be. We are still trying to see what is going on, there are other issues to solve, but I think that the Serbian administration is happy with Trump. A deal was made with someone of his staff previously, and they also offered Trump – which is also one of the absurd things of this country – the building of the military headquarter that was demolished by NATO bombings in 1999, next to the government. It will become a Trump hotel. They are making a deal about that, despite protests and architects not agreeing with the project. They even sent the security agencies to the institute for the Protection of Buildings to put pressure on them. It is a protected building, and even though it is crazy it is one of the examples of the fact that the government is happy with Trump, as he creates opportunities to make deals with everybody. He does not care about any rules or government, this is why the government is positive about Trump. I am not sure of how he will help them, but we will see.
What about Türkiye? I find particularly interesting the fact it is a NATO country, part of KFOR and supporter of Kosovo, while having strategic interests here. Is Serbia countering the “expansion” project of Türkiye because of ethnic and religious differences?
There are a lot of Muslims in Serbia, especially in the south-western part. So, it is “natural” that Türkiye wants to be present. Serbia additionally is the most important country in the area, so they want to be present. I personally believe that “two autocrats make a good deal”. There are Turkish investments in Serbia, many Turkish people are coming to Serbia to work, there are also examples of military cooperation due to the fact that Türkiye sold Bayraktar drones to Kosovo, which is a major issue. That influences relations, which in general can be deemed good. There is cooperation with Turkish companies, even though there are not big projects. Serbia has also used Türkiye as a logic transit through which arms went to Ukraine at the beginning of the war.
Let’s move to regional issues and talk about Kosovo. In Belgrade I have seen many handwritings saying “Kosovo is Serbia”. Do you believe that the path of normalization will ever be followed or that the situation will complicate even more? Indeed, tensions increased as Albin Kurti came to power in Kosovo.
I believe that in these few years Kosovo has made more progress to reinforce its state, with the complete discrimination of Serbians living in the North of Kosovo, numerous kinds of pressures, the expropriation of land to build their police stations – which was even criticized by the EU. Especially after the incident in which a Kosovo policeman was killed, I think that Serbia has lost its position in the North of Kosovo. I do not know if this is deliberate or just bad politics, but what is certain is that this move made Kosovo gaining more independence.
President Vučić presents as the man who will solve the issue of Kosovo, but he then always makes moves that appear to help the Kosovo side and not the Serbian side. I do not know what will happen in the future, but what is clear is that the situation will be very bad for the Serbian minority in the North of Kosovo. There is the possibility that in a few time the Serbians there will be expelled, because there are not very good conditions there: State repression and ethnic discrimination will become even harder. But it is also clear that this government will never sign a document saying that Kosovo is independent.
They will not recognize it de facto, but in practice the situation is going in that direction.
Yes, this is a kind of game of the institutions, the State enterprises, which have still many issues to solve (this is why they call it “technical dialogue”). This government cannot afford to do other direct moves.
Also because of NATO presence in KOSOVO, and I do not believe that something happens Russia will come to “save” you against NATO.
Sure. But with this situation in the world, what is NATO? What is the EU? What is the US? They demolished Gaza and the President of the US posted a video sitting at the beach with Netanyahu, drinking cocktails in big luxury hotels. The world became satirical and comic. It is really hard to foresee what to expect in the future, with this situation in big and powerful countries. I do not see any country in Europe and the US that is not in a messy situation. Right wing (almost nazi parties) with 20% of votes at the elections…and that will also impact Serbia.
The Srpska Republic in Bosnia and Herzegovina: how is it related to Serbia? Milorad Dodik has hopes for the “reunification” of the Serbs living there, he is deliberately in favor of Russia and extreme with respect of the project of “Great Serbia”. Is it rhetoric or do you believe Serbia will put Kosovo aside to concentrate on the Srpska Republic?
This question is really hard. Yesterday Dodik was convicted, he called Vučić for support and he came immediately. They are going to play this game, but it depends on what will be the position of the West in Bosnia. Dodik alone cannot do anything: I think the election of Trump and how he behaves with his crazy staff will have a great impact. In any case, there is no power to do that. I do not think it will be possible also for military reasons, it is a war and nobody wants a war in a long term. None of the actors want that.
Many analysts looking at Bosnia (but also at Serbia) believe that this is an area of possible future conflict. Do you agree?
I think it is exaggerated in Western media. This is a “balkanization” narrative saying that there is always a war here. Maybe there could be some sort of prophecies, but it is not like that here. It is completely different in dynamics that relates to outside the region, more than inside.
The only reason why countries here can enter a conflict is to stay in power, not for other aspirations. With this situation now, if Trump is aligning with Serbia, I do not think that the Kosovo situation will change a lot, as there is a strong Albanian lobby in the US. Bosnia has also some stories, but I do not see something happening like that. But you can never say.
Also due to ethnic differences? I am thinking of Bosnia, for instance, where three ethnicities have been put together in a country which was actually built by a treaty.
I believe that changes in the country can be made only with the accord of all sides. The start of a war, in any case, would be a lost cause for them. I mean, you cannot wage a war in Bosnia. They have their own territory, it would be suicide. If something like that happens is because Bosnia is a completely dysfunctional State, as it is crazy how the bureaucracy, courts and generally the country is organized. Politicians there created this narrative that they do not want this kind of Bosnia in favour of “their own thing”. Maybe if Croatia enters all this, then some kind of splitting of Bosnia could happen. It is something I would have not expected some two years ago, but now with that craziness in the world, you can expect anything.
Since you mentioned Croatia, while studying the region I have seen that Croatia is exercising its veto power to block you in joining the EU. Are there tensions between Serbia and Croatia?
There are always tensions between Serbia and Croatia, but mostly they are fake ones. Serbia and Croatia are like mouse and cat, like Inter and Milan, like Juventus and Napoli: there is always some disagreement. You can see in many articles published on Balkan Insight technically what is Croatia asking, like war reparations, but in essence, Croatia has been naïve in war, that was very bloody. There was a lot of extreme nationalism in the war, the country was hit by the holocaust, and now nationalism is extreme as it is in Serbia, but in Croatia is against the Serbs. When you win a war, you install that in the minds and the grounds of a country. They did that with the winning of the war against Serbs and the practical ethnic cleansing. When I was a kid I lived there, and I can say that it is tangible. Croatia now can adopt that attitude because it is in a position of power, being an EU country. Serbia, on its part, even accused Croatian secret services to have influenced the students in the protests. This is a crazy theory.